Introduction
In the IT world, the word “commit” often sounds like a verdict:
We committed, so we HAVE to deliver!
But is that really what Scrum is about?
In this article, we’ll explore why a commit is actually a forecast, not a guarantee — and why thinking of it like a weather forecast helps teams work smarter, adapt better, and stay focused on delivering value rather than chasing unrealistic promises.
This article was inspired by classic Scrum discussions about empiricism and the meaning of “commitment” — particularly ideas originally expressed by Ken Schwaber about commitment as a forecast rather than a guarantee.
Table of Contents
- What a Commit Really Means in Scrum
- A Forecast, Not a Promise — How Commit Actually Works
- Why Forecasts Change
- The Benefits of This Mindset
- How to Teach Teams and Stakeholders to Think in Forecasts
- Conclusion — Embracing Uncertainty as the Strength of Scrum
What a Commit Really Means in Scrum
During Sprint Planning, the Development Team chooses a set of backlog items they believe they can complete within the Sprint.
That’s their commitment — a pledge to do their best based on what is currently known, not a binding contract.
Scrum is grounded in empiricism: we learn from experience, inspect what happens, and adapt to changing conditions.
A Forecast, Not a Promise — How Commit Actually Works
Think of it like a weather forecast.
A meteorologist might say on Monday:
“It’s going to rain on Saturday.”
That’s not a promise of rain — it’s a forecast based on current data and scientific models.
Scrum teams work the same way.
A commit is their best possible forecast of what they can deliver, given the team’s capacity, skill set, and known risks at the time.
Why Forecasts Change
Just like the weather, project conditions shift — sometimes unexpectedly:
A new customer priority emerges,
A key team member gets sick,
A task turns out to be more complex than expected,
Dependencies or integrations cause delays.
That doesn’t mean failure. It means reality changed, and Scrum gives us the tools to respond through inspection and adaptation.
The Benefits of This Mindset
Recognizing that a commit is a forecast — not a promise — changes everything:
- The team stays realistic and calm, instead of chasing deadlines at all costs.
- Quality remains protected — no cutting corners or skipping testing just to “deliver.”
- It builds trust and transparency with the Product Owner and stakeholders.
- It strengthens empirical thinking — every Sprint gives new data to improve future forecasts.
How to Teach Teams and Stakeholders to Think in Forecasts
Use forecasting language: say “our forecast is to deliver X” instead of “we’ll definitely deliver X.”
Show historical data: velocity, variance, dependencies, and past outcomes.
Explain that a plan is not a promise, but a living hypothesis that evolves with knowledge.
In retrospectives, analyze why the forecast changed — not to blame, but to learn.
Conclusion — Embracing Uncertainty as the Strength of Scrum
Scrum is the art of working in uncertainty.
Just like meteorologists watch the sky, we watch our projects — and adjust as the winds shift.
A commit is a forecast, not a contract.
The goal isn’t to always deliver exactly what was planned,
but to continuously learn, adapt, and deliver value despite changing conditions.
After all — it might rain on Saturday, or the sun might shine.
What matters is that we have an umbrella… and an empirical mindset.